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FERI (Schweiz) has a unique expertise in asset management and advisory services for discerning clients. The sustainable quality concept is based on the quality investing approach, in which financially sound companies are identified through targeted selection on the basis of various quality characteristics.
Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G – exponential technologies will trigger a wave of transformation in society and the environment in the coming decades. FERI (Schweiz) offers the opportunity to actively participate in these developments and to invest in an innovative concept.
FERI (Schweiz) offers its clients customised solutions and individual investment strategies. Our particular strength lies in mandates with special risk-return targets, which we define individually with our clients.
FERI (Schweiz) offers clients a range of advisory services and individual investment solutions to give them clarity as to how compatible their investments are with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and increase their understanding of this at the different levels of the investment process.
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Economics Update December 2023 - German economy at the turn of the year: Between hope and scepticism

Bad Homburg, 12/11/2023
by Axel D. Angermann
  • Export industry suffers from weak global demand
  • Restrictive monetary policy curbs investment and burdens the construction sector
  • Poor consumer climate despite growing real incomes

The major concern about an energy crisis, which dominated the headlines just a year ago, is no longer an issue now, at the end of 2023 and with a view to the upcoming winter. Nevertheless, the economic situation in Germany only appears to be better than a year ago. In fact, economic output in the third quarter of 2023 was almost exactly at the same level as at the end of 2022. Current economic indicators point to continued stagnation, which underlines the need for political and economic adjustments. 

Declining export momentum

The outlook for 2024 remains gloomy overall. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty surrounding the future development of the global economy. Weak demand from the key markets of the USA and China is limiting the export prospects of German companies. A turnaround is not in sight here. Hardly any positive impetus can be expected from China, and the US economy is threatened by a moderate recession in the coming year, or at least a significant slowdown in growth momentum. If exports to the two most important trading partners outside the EU weaken, this does not bode well for exports as a whole.

Domestic market under interest rate pressure

The restrictive monetary policy of the European Central Bank is having an increasingly negative impact on the domestic market. The proportion of companies that see financing bottlenecks as a major obstacle to production is still low. However, almost 40% of industrial companies are now complaining of a lack of orders and, together with significantly higher interest rates, this is not a good prerequisite for higher investment in equipment. In the construction sector, existing orders in civil engineering and existing buildings are still cushioning the declines in other areas, but the fall in residential building permits by more than 30%, the almost halving of residential construction loans to households and the significant drop in turnover for property developers and project developers do not bode well for construction investment overall.

Uncertainty puts the brakes on private consumption 

With regard to private consumption, the rising purchasing power of households should lead to a noticeable increase in private spending due to falling inflation. However, this is countered by persistently very poor consumer sentiment, which is well below the level seen in spring 2020 at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Now that the Federal Constitutional Court has ruled that the traffic light government's plans to finance the climate and transformation fund violate the constitution, not only are numerous projects in the context of the planned energy transition on the back burner. There is now also generally increased uncertainty about the development of taxes and the continued existence of subsidies. All of this is paralysing private households' desire to spend. Government consumption will also suffer from the imposed budget freeze.

The government is challenged 

Only a marginal increase in economic output is expected for 2024. Germany is therefore at risk of falling into a disastrous cycle: The economic slump, which will then have lasted for five years, will exacerbate existing distribution conflicts and slow down the possibilities for financially cushioning necessary structural adjustments, and this in turn will further slow down economic momentum. It remains to be hoped that the traffic light government will find the strength to cut through this knot by systematically improving the general framework conditions and cancelling non-essential government spending.


About Axel D. Angermann

As Chief Economist of the FERI Group, Axel D. Angermann analyzes the economic, monetary policy and structural developments of all markets that are important for asset allocation. His analyses form the basis for the strategic orientation of FERI's multi-asset strategy, for which the CIO of the FERI Group, Dr. Marcel V. Lähn, is responsible. Angermann himself has been responsible for FERI's analyses and forecasts for the overall economy and the international financial markets since 2008. He joined the company in 2002 as a macro analyst. His professional career began at the Max Planck Institute for Economics and the German Chemical Industry Association. Angermann studied economics in Berlin and Bayreuth.

About FERI

The FERI Group, headquartered in Bad Homburg, Germany, was founded in 1987 and has developed into one of the leading multi-asset investment houses in the German-speaking region. FERI offers tailor-made solutions for institutional investors, family assets and foundations in the business areas:

Founded in 2016, the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute acts as a strategic research center and creative think tank within the FERI Group, with a clear focus on innovative analyses and method development for long-term aspects of economic and capital market research.

Together with MLP, FERI currently manages assets of approximately €56 billion, including around €18 billion in alternative investments. In addition to its headquarters in Bad Homburg, the FERI Group has offices in Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Munich, Luxembourg, Vienna and Zurich.

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Media relations contact

Marcel Renné

Chairman of the Board

Rathausplatz 8-10

D-61348 Bad Homburg

Axel Angermann