Donald Trump's aggressive policy will bring the USA record revenue from tariffs in the short term: In June 2025 alone, the US government's tariff revenue reached almost 28 billion US dollars. In the second quarter, the total was even around 64 billion US dollars.
For the current year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is currently forecasting total revenues of around 300 billion US dollars, resulting from Trump's latest tariff agreements - as recently enforced against the EU to great public effect.
Nevertheless, caution is advised:
In the long term, such protectionist measures have considerable side effects. Import tariffs effectively act like taxes and make imported goods and intermediate products more expensive. This implies increasing burdens and tends to inhibit economic growth.
Higher tariffs typically result in a reduction in company profits and household income. At the same time, higher inflationary dynamics are to be expected.
All of this calls into question the long-term effectiveness of Trump's tariff policy and could pose a challenge for the US and the global economy.