Arms race in space: Germany's long-overdue space security strategy

Last Wednesday, the German government presented its first space security strategy. “This step is the right one and was long overdue,” emphasizes Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and director of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute (FCFI) and author of a comprehensive analysis on the militarization of space. Based on new risk assessments, the German government now plans to use a budget of €35 billion to reduce existing dependencies in space and become more resilient to threats. The focus is on the entire space-based infrastructure, in particular communication and observation satellites and navigation systems.

“Space has quietly become a highly geostrategically important domain. Powers such as Russia and China see low Earth orbit as the West's open flank,” explains Rapp. These players in particular are increasingly using space for military purposes, including the deployment of new types of offensive weapons. The Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022 was already initiated by a targeted satellite attack. The increasing importance of space is now leading to an open arms race in space. “Countries such as Russia and China are specifically targeting low Earth orbit and already dominate important areas there, including space stations, hypersonic gliders, and satellite weapons,” explains Rapp. Systems in orbit have long been part of critical infrastructure, as modern societies depend on satellite-based networks for communication, navigation, and military applications. This offers potential aggressors completely new opportunities for attack. Combined attacks in space and cyberspace are particularly dangerous, as they could cause massive damage to modern – increasingly space-based – information, communication, and navigation systems. Even in the US, new types of threats from space are now causing growing nervousness. “With its new space security strategy, the German government has finally recognized the urgency of this issue and responded to it,” says Rapp.

Massive security policy risk

According to Rapp, space is increasingly becoming a central arena for geopolitical strategies, where states define their claims to power within the framework of a new “astropolitics.” “The rapid militarization of space is one of the greatest security risks of the 21st century,” says Rapp. A new Cold War (“Space Cold War”) is now underway in near-Earth space, bringing with it a number of extremely disturbing developments. The increased focus of offensive actors on space is also leading to new threat scenarios and noticeable power shifts on Earth. “The ability to protect space infrastructure and prevent attacks from space is becoming a key factor in national security. Targeted attacks in space can endanger entire countries and massively disrupt highly complex economic processes,” warns Rapp. Investors and capital market participants should also keep this aspect in mind at all times.

The German Cognitive Comment „‚Space Cold War‘: Massive Militarisierung des Weltraums als globales Risiko“, published in June 2024, provides investors and entrepreneurs with in-depth insights into the underlying issues and assists in the analysis and assessment of future challenges. The analysis is available in German for download on this page.