February 2026: Will the US under Trump establish an “anti-OPEC”?

Donald Trump's economic policy focus is on low interest rates and abundant oil at favorable prices. Against this backdrop, the recent US intervention in Venezuela is becoming increasingly controversial – as is Trump's desire to annex Canada. What is the common factor? 

• Venezuela possesses nearly 20% of the world's crude oil reserves – more than Saudi Arabia! However, due to political instability and sanctions, this potential has remained untapped for decades.
• Although the US is currently the world's largest oil producer, it has comparatively low reserves, accounting for less than 3% of the global total – in contrast to Canada, which accounts for around 11%!

From the US perspective, this presents an attractive geopolitical opportunity:

• Combined with Canada's rich oil reserves, a contiguous energy corridor could be formed stretching from North to South America (see chart).
• Together with Venezuela and Canada, a powerful “oil empire” could emerge in the US hemisphere – led by major players in the US oil industry.

A new “oil bloc” as a strategic counterweight to OPEC – with noticeable consequences for global energy markets, but to the benefit of the US economy – would be the possible outcome.

For the time being, the following questions in particular remain open:

• Would such a plan by the US not only be conceivable – but also feasible?
• Would it result in greater stability in the global energy system – or a new risk factor?
• Could oil-rich Iran also come into play – for example, after US intervention?