Greenland and the Arctic: Europe caught in a geopolitical vice

Trump may have been dissuaded from his threat to annex Greenland at last week's World Economic Forum in Davos, causing relief in Europe. “However, the global power struggle over the Arctic is in full swing – and Europe is only sitting at the children's table,” says Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and director of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, which published a comprehensive analysis of the battle for the Arctic even before Trump's latest escalation.

The conflict over Greenland has only now brought the Arctic to the attention of the general public. The issue has been highly controversial for some time, but has been criminally neglected in Europe. “Climate change and the rapid melting of the polar ice cap are opening up completely new opportunities, which countries such as China and Russia are already exploiting,” says Rapp. Russia is benefiting primarily in military terms, gaining greater freedom of movement for its Northern Fleet. For China, the opening of the Arctic means a significant shortening of shipping routes – but also access to previously untapped sources of raw materials.

The US has also recognized the geostrategic importance of the Arctic and is now making massive efforts to gain a foothold there, most recently with abstruse claims of ownership over Greenland. According to Rapp, this is also about tangible economic interests – driven by the US tech giants' hunger for critical metals. The new US National Security Strategy describes the Arctic as an important element of US security policy, which explains the aggressive course towards Denmark and other NATO allies. "The US is thus also pursuing its newly formulated power politics in the Arctic, which turns away from the idea of 'the West' and instead aligns itself with the principle of neo-imperial hemispheres," explains Rapp.

One thing is clear: the Arctic region is rapidly becoming the new front line between the three major powers, the US, Russia, and China. “The Arctic is thus transforming from an underestimated ‘blind spot’ into a geopolitical ‘hot spot,’” says Rapp. From Europe's perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear that “the old continent no longer has a box seat in the new concert of great powers.” Despite the legitimate interests of the Arctic coastal states Norway, Sweden, and Finland, the European Union is not pursuing a coherent strategy for the region. Rapp warns: “Europe is increasingly caught in a geopolitical vise. With the US now openly violating European security interests alongside Russia and China, there is a threat of dangerous power politics triangulation.”

As Canadian Prime Minister Carney made clear in a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF), the US under Trump can no longer be relied upon. The idea of a rules- and values-based world order, which often still prevails in Europe, has been exposed as an illusion and must give way to a realistic view. “Middle powers such as Europe are thus facing acute challenges and must position themselves better as quickly as possible,” Rapp demands. “However, the scenario of a new ‘world disorder’ also forces entrepreneurs and professional investors to engage in fundamental strategic reflection.”

The analysis “Battle for the Arctic – Global Race for Raw Materials, Power, and Strategic Dominance”, published in December 2025 by the Bad Homburg think tank FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, examines the rapid transformation of the Arctic and provides deep insights into the geopolitical implications. The cognitive briefing is available in German for download on this page.