Markets Update June 2026 - Tailwinds for the Markets – Despite Existing Risks

Positive news is currently dominating global stock markets. This continues to support stock prices. The framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran, along with the associated prospect of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has caused oil prices to drop noticeably. As a result, inflation risks have also declined. However, so far this is merely a broadly worded agreement in principle. The actual points of contention have been deferred to future rounds of negotiations, during which the details will need to be worked out.

The rest of the negotiation process is unlikely to proceed smoothly, and temporary setbacks remain probable—as the renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz clearly demonstrates. Iran has recognized the significant geopolitical leverage it wields through the Strait of Hormuz. This strengthens its negotiating position for the upcoming talks. Furthermore, it remains to be seen whether Israel will continue to support a diplomatic solution in the long term. Nevertheless, a renewed massive escalation of the conflict appears unlikely in the medium term—the opposing sides are unlikely to have any interest in that ultimately.

SpaceX’s successful IPO also provided a positive boost. It demonstrated that the capital markets remain capable of absorbing even very large offerings without difficulty. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, which have also been announced for this year. Should these also prove successful—which currently seems likely—this would be further evidence of investors’ current high appetite for risk.

While the mega-IPOs are likely to have only a limited direct impact on established stock indices—since the free float will initially be very small—their indirect influence could be significant. OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are highly sensitive barometers of AI euphoria. Accordingly, their signaling effect is likely to extend far beyond their actual index weight and further increase the sensitivity of U.S. stock markets to AI-related sentiment.

A more restrictive Federal Reserve isn't necessarily bad for the stock market

The new chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), Kevin Warsh, immediately made his mark at his first Fed meeting: He spoke out in favor of less “forward guidance”—that is, less steering of market expectations regarding future monetary policy. This gives the Fed more flexibility, though market participants will have to rely more heavily on incoming economic data to form their own monetary policy expectations going forward. This opens the door to surprises that are likely to lead to greater volatility in the capital markets around the time of Fed meetings.

In addition, Warsh clearly emphasized the goal of price stability in his statement. The Fed’s second mandate—promoting maximum employment—played hardly any role. To the surprise of many market participants, this hawkish start has not yet resulted in any sustained pressure on the stock markets. On the contrary: as early as the following day, U.S. stock indices more than made up for their previously moderate losses.

Eine genauere Analyse zeigt, dass die falkenhafte Ausrichtung der Fed auch positive Seiten hat und nicht ausschließlich negativ bewertet werden sollte: Eine glaubwürdige Inflationsbekämpfung senkt das Risiko dauerhaft erhöhter Teuerungsraten und wirkt damit dämpfend auf die langfristigen Inflationserwartungen. Tatsächlich gingen diese am Tag des Fed-Entscheids zurück. Das wirkt entlastend auf die langfristigen Marktzinsen und stützt damit die Bewertungen an den Aktienmärkten. Insofern erscheint die insgesamt moderat positive Marktreaktion keineswegs irrational.